State Sen. Gustavo Rivera (D), a vocal critic of Gov. Cuomo, tweeted this photo of him toasting the resignation on board a flight while the governor made his announcement. (Photo: Twitter)
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his decision to “step aside” on Tuesday one week after a blockbuster report detailed sexual harassment allegations against him from 11 different women. Cuomo’s move left his critics celebrating and huge questions about who will succeed him after over a decade in office.
Since this is such a fast moving story, I am doing something a bit different and opened up this thread. I will be in the comments throughout the day sharing information and analysis about what I am hearing from Albany.
Please join in with any questions or thoughts you have! And if you want more original, independent politics news and analysis, please sign up!
There was one thing that wasn't in the governor's announcement; a promise not to run again. I reached out to his office to ask if he's ruling it out and have yet to hear a response. However, one source close to the governor tells me they doubt he will run for office again. The source offered this theory for why he didn't make that clear: "I think that was just his pride."
This obviously is going to set up a major race to succeed Cuomo. Here are the various names of potential Democratic candidates that I have heard over the past few months roughly arranged in order of their formidability and the likelihood they will run:
My list is a little smaller than that since a lot of the folks in that poll haven't come up in my conversations with anyone.
Tish is kind of a juggernaut — particularly after this investigation. However, her base is very much NYC. There is certainly room for someone in a more upstate, moderate lane. Generally, I think people underestimate Hochul. If she wants to run again — and I am almost certain she will — she'd have the power of incumbency at her back. It vaguely reminds me of Gillibrand getting into the Senate. She was a relatively low profile, fairly conservative upstate Dem. When she was put into Hillary's seat in 2009, there was a lot of head scratching. Fast forward a few years, and she'd been in the seat for over a decade and was running for president as a relative progressive. It's easy to imagine Hochul's sort of sideways ascent similarly being the low key basis for a decade long time in power.
I don't point to Nate Silver a lot but he alluded to this on Twitter today:
Speaking of Gillibrand, she's getting mentioned a bit today and is in that poll. I am dubious she's actually eyeing it because I haven't heard her mentioned at all by insiders in the weeks of Cuomo drama — and I have spent a lot of time burning up the phones on this. Perhaps that will change, but that's why she's not on my list.
Both Biaggi and Williams also have a clear lane among progressives. You'll note that before I suggested Hochul was more moderate than Tish and that Gillibrand was a relative progressive when she ran in 2016. That's more in the national context. Tish is progressive compared to Hochul and Gillibrand sort of was compared to her earlier days but neither are part of NYC's progressive movement. National observers misunderstand this a lot. I touched on that a bit here.
Biaggi and Jumaane are both part of NY's progressive wing. Jumaane is getting a lot more buzz and has the bigger profile, however, a lot that I have heard makes me think he's really reluctant to go for the top job. Some folks suggest he's really considering it, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's more interested in being an LG. He could help shore up any number of these other potential candidates on their left and within NYC. Biaggi has really been one of Cuomo's worst nightmares who isn't named Tish James. She could be a formidable candidate or LG, however, so far the poll numbers make that look like an uphill climb.
Bellone, Suozzi, and DiNapoli all have people talking about them. I don't really see any of them having a clear lane compared to these other folks and it's also hard to see room for more than one of them succeeding in a primary field.
Lastly, that brings us to de Blasio. He is last on my list more in terms of formidability than likelihood. I think he's really considering it! When I spoke to him in June, he said he wasn't ruling it out and he's since echoed that with others. However, as many people know, de Blasio has earned mixed reviews in NYC and would bring a good deal of baggage. Still, he does have some claim to the progressive lane and he's improved his numbers and **vibes** lately. He could be an interesting player here — particularly if the other progressives sit it out. Here's my recent piece on him where I explore his rejuvenated image and asked if he might be running for governor:
I almost forgot to mention the Republicans! The short answer is that there hasn't been a Republican governor since Pataki, so the Zeldin/Giuliani race seems like a bit of an unlikely sideshow. Perhaps all of the Cuomo drama - or a brutal Dem primary could change the picture though!
Some interesting context from NY1's Bob Hardt: "For comparison's sake to Andrew Cuomo's two-week warning, Eliot Spitzer gave New Yorkers five days notice before stepping down in 2008."
Will have more to share later but I am briefly escaping my desk! Would love to get some more thoughts and questions from you all! I am particularly interested in feedback to that potential candidates list.
President Biden just addressed Cuomo's resignation when he took questions from reporters at a White House event marking the passage of the infrastructure deal. Biden asked the reporter to clarify whether they were asking about Cuomo's "personal behavior or what he's done as governor." The reporter said they wanted an assessment of Cuomo's record.
"Well he's done a hell of a job," Biden said of Cuomo. "He's done a hell of a job … on everything from access to voting, to infrastructure, the whole range of things. That’s why it’s so sad."
It’s funny because I agree with the general sentiment. It makes me angry at Cuomo and sad for similar reasons. And I love Biden. But goddamit this was not “personal behavior” this WAS part of “what he’s done as Governor.”
Attorney General Tish James, whose office launched the investigation that precipitated Cuomo's resignation, just released this statement:
“Today closes a sad chapter for all of New York, but it’s an important step towards justice.
“I thank Governor Cuomo for his contributions to our state. The ascension of our Lieutenant Governor, Kathy Hochul, will help New York enter a new day. We must continue to build on the progress already made and improve the lives of New Yorkers in every corner of the state. I know our state is in good hands with Lieutenant Governor Hochul at the helm, and I look forward to continuing to work with her.”
I’ve wondered with friends for a long time why Cuomo didn’t run for President, and while we had a lot of theories, we often ended up speculating that he had some kind of skeleton in the closet. Do you think this is it? Or could there be something else back there he doesnt want to come out through further probing, making resignation more attractive?
I am really glad you mentioned this! The whole thing has amazing echoes of Mario Cuomo's infamous plane on the tarmac in 1992.
I was working at the Observer covering New York in 2011-2012 when the Cuomo for president buzz was the loudest. I also couldn't help but notice that Cuomo2016.com and Cuomoforpresident.com were both registered in December 2012.
He was touting the state as the "progressive capital" of the countrY at the time. It's branding that feels so hilariously out of step with the rep he would achieve only a few minutes later. Interestingly, it's a phrase I didn't hear him use for years ... until yesterday's resignation remarks!
Cuomo clearly flirted with it. In some ways, I always saw his decision not to as the fact some of the bad stories about his (work-related) behavior and policy critiques from progressives bubbled up in the time between Obama's re-elect and 2016. Hillary was also a powerhouse. I tend to think it's that stuff (which in terms of his record sort of counts as skeletons in the closet!) that made him stick with Albany.
OK so I came in thinking Hochul would not really have a tremendous name brand future in the state, and you are trade-weighting her as more formidable.
My sense is that traditional Cuomo firewalls in the City and Western NY were already eroding, but absolutely will not translate to his former LG for a variety of reasons.
While press at a lot of levels (typically national press) get it twisted on "progressive," I think there is a decent chance that Biaggi or James could animate enough of NY's cities--including and especially Buffalo--to counteract the traditional "moderate appeal" lane.
But I do see Hochul is staffing up and is herself taking it more seriously than I thought she would...
I don't disagree with you! That's part of why I have Biaggi and James behind her on my list. They're both formidable. James in particular is probably the consensus favorite at the moment.
A lot of this will also depend on how many people are in. Is the more moderate lane getting split? I could see a DiNapoli or a Suozzi taking from Hochul. De Blasio could eat into James a bit. Both James and Biaggi are also going to draw on some common support.
Those three are clearly the most formidable but I would put Hochul on top as of now due to incumbency. She is going to have at least a few months to stand alone as the first woman governor. As an upstater, she also clearly has the most unique base here, which is important if we do see a larger field. As you point out, she has been staffing up and in the past week I have seen a lot of moderate DC consultant types start to rally around her. There will be money and an organization ready to go quickly. Also, frankly, I just got intense Gillibrand 2009 deja vu. Tish is most peoples' frontrunner but I think being more under the radar is a strong position for Hochul.
My main takeaway is that it's way early to make solid predictions since we can't see the whole field. However, Hochul, James, and Biaggi seem like the strongest contenders to me at the outset.
I think that Kathryn Garcia could make quite a strong campaign for LG next year.
I’m really curious to see where the folks in Cuomo’s inner circle go now? DeRosa, Benton, and Azzo are the three at top of mind — will they continue working for Cuomo? I’m sure Cuomo will keep a staff of some sort, but I really can’t see them getting hired anywhere else.
I was just thinking about this question of his staff! Given how many enemies they had in the legislature, the corporate route makes more sense to me than lobbying. I am sure there are some in the business world who will see experience with Cuomo's iron fisted brand of politics as an asset. He also has a big rolodex of donors and allies.
The house is a really interesting question! He has no other home since the breakup with Sandra Lee!
Is there any reason to think that he has, or that he might, made a deal? Resignation in exchange for some relief on prosecutions or investigations? Or was this just a straight-up reading of the political landscape and getting out while it was still his decision to make?
Hi Charles! In politics, it's probably always smart to assume there's some level of backroom dealmaking!
Very early on in this, I got the impression he might be trying to make a play to serve out his term with a promise not to run again. I believe I got into that a bit in this podcast appearance:
So, in the Assembly there has definitely already been wheeling and dealing to try to stop the impeachment. It didn't work without resignation and it's an open question whether it will stop now that Cuomo's gone (going to post on that shortly).
As far as the other ongoing Cuomo investigations, as I noted earlier I think his resignation will take *some* of the heat off those probes.
However, even if I think law enforcement might factor it in his decision to leave office, theoretically these investigations outside of the legislature should be less open to formal wheeling and dealing from the governor's team at this point. Still, his goal was clearly to calm everything down on all fronts and I suspect this will go a long way towards doing that.
I keep getting stuck on who might run for Governor. I think Kirsten Gillibrand could win (including the conservative upstate vote), but we can’t lose her in the Senate….Schumer is sure to retire soon, and she would then be the senior Senator from New York. Under these circumstances, a woman on the Gubernatorial ticket would be great. I await your list of potential candidates.
On twitter, Matt Y suggested AOC should run for governer in order for the left to "challenge themselves". I don't think that is in the cards for her currently but it got me thinking on a larger scale what are the best options for NY progressives to take for the next election. What are your early thoughts?
I am going to post a longer comment on the likely contenders soon!
Right off the bat I will tell you I think there's almost no chance AOC does that. She has made noise about the Senate seat. As a lot of folks have observed, the possibility of an AOC primary has pushed Schumer meaningfully to the left. Despite this, she's still publicly flirting with a Senate bid which gives her continued leverage. AOC has cooled her national profile a bit and doesn't seem to be eyeing 2024. I suspect she will stay where she is while trying to extract wins from Schumer and plotting a next move.
One thing a lot of folks outside of New York don't understand is that the state — despite being reliably blue in presidential races and very progressive in the city — has a lot of more conservative rural and suburban areas. The Dems only just got a majority in the legislature. For AOC, a statewide race will be pretty hard — I actually think it could be even tougher turf for her than a presidential general. Biding her time and managing the relationship with Schumer is likely a smart political move.
All of that being said, I don't think it's fair or correct to dismiss the recent progressive wave as a bunch of House back benchers. As noted above, AOC has used her position and profile to extract some wins. Cori Bush also just scored a big victory on evictions. More moderate Dems have acknowledged that Bernie and others' pushing led to a larger infrastructure package. And the Biden administration has absorbed some Warren and Sanders staff.
If you look at local offices — including in New York — it also becomes clear that progressives are wielding some influence. In fact, I don't think you would see Cuomo's resignation right now were it not for the sustained pressure we have seen from new progressive lawmakers like Alessandra Biaggi (more on her in a bit), Yuh Line Niou, and Julis Salazar, among others. These were some of the leading voices criticizing his behavior prior to the misconduct allegations. I think that emboldened some folks to come forward. They also are some of the loudest folks calling for an aggressive response to him. In fact, Lindsey Boylan, one of his accusers, is a progressive who has run for office.
So, yeah, I would say this take on what progressives should do (and what they have done) is way too simplistic.
Thanks for the detailed response, these discussions areas are where I feel substack substack subscriptions become the most valuable. Twitter is fine for short thoughts but anything to this length gets lost.
I definitely agree with what you are saying and think the governer race shouldn't be the focus for NY progressives. Like AOC has been able to push Schumer to the left via the leverage she does have, I wonder what potential concessions progressives can get from the upcoming gov if they play it smart/correctly. Not always easy to extract the leverage you have without overplaying hand.
This is an interesting question! I will incorporate the best answers I have into my longer comment about the field of would be successors. Trying to get to substantive updates on that and the impeachment but you guys are sending in so many great questions that it's taking a second!
This thread format was a new test for me. One thing I love about Substack is how experimental it all is. I am really pleased with the discussion we have got going down here right now and grateful to you and everyone else for making this a real conversation.
I like how this turned out so there will definitely be more like this in the future!
It was clearly the only sane decision for Cuomo and the state. He should have been impeached over the nursing home scandal. It removes a media distraction from focusing on GOP governor accountability. Why aren't there calls for impeachment of Desantis? Abott's governance is nearly schizophrenic as he tries to appease both the Trumpist base and Independents on the pandemic while openly pushing voter suppression. Where is the outcry of condemnation from Texas voters and the media? Why is the indicted Texas Lt Governor continuing to spew pro-coup propaganda without accountability? Why hasn't FOJ opened a criminal investigation into the Trump administration for the events leading to 1/6? This country is starving for accountability, and the downfall of Cuomo, while deserved, will do little to fix what's broken.
I've actually spent time with some of the family members of the people who died in the nursing homes. One thing that struck me is that they acknowledge the early days of the pandemic were messy and dangerous. There was no perfect solution for nursing homes. What really seemed to bother them is that Cuomo never apologized and, in covering up the numbers, quite literally brushed their loved ones aside. It was a real case where the coverup - and particularly the perceived arrogance around it - was worse than the crime.
I *believe* there is nothing formal about this resignation, so very technically he could. That being said, the public fallout would be huge and as you will see in other comments impeachment and other investigations are still looming. I think the more realistic possibility would be him trying to run for something else again. A source now is telling me they don't think he'd do it but we have certainly seen a blue print in NY for scandalized pols trying to mount comebacks!
I just texted with a lawmaker about this and they told me they weren't sure, but "that is the goddamn right question." After so many years of Cuomo's hold on Albany it's very clear a lot of folks aren't sure whether to believe he's really gone yet.
What are the chances that Gov. Cuomo or anyone from his inner circle could be criminally prosecuted? And will Kathy Hochul serve out the rest of the term, or will there be a special election?
Hochul will serve out the rest of his term. Will get into what's next for her shortly.
There definitely are ongoing investigations! Firstly, it's not clear he fully dodged impeachment. Will have a comment up with more detail on that soon. There are also criminal probes! The Albany DA and sheriff are investigating the alleged harassment in his office and the sheriff has said he could face a misdemeanor for groping.
AG James also has an ongoing inquiry into his pandemic book deal and, in recent days, she has specified that the probe is "ongoing."
The only scandal that has definitively cooled down was the probe into the nursing home death numbers. Last month, the DOJ said they would not be launching an investigation into that.
I tend to think resigning will take a lot of pressure off him and his staff. The urgency and heat around these probes will die down a bit and he has already clearly faced some consequences. That's likely why he resigned relatively quickly even though he is, as he said, "a fighter." Still, it remains to be seen whether that move will be enough to totally end the legal jeopardy. Definitely one of the key things to watch going forward!
I believe you have conflated the DOJ investigation into public nursing home deaths in several states (NJ, MI as well as NY) with the more specific SDNY inquiry involving Cuomo fudging of death totals in NYS -- as well as vaccine issues (preferential treatment for family/friends/donors as well as Senor Schwartz possibly pressuring county execs to state their opposition to AC's resignation in exchange for vaccine and distribution sites. Could be wrong -- the reports are somewhat cryptic -- but he seems to still have DOJ peril.
Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer emailed me a succinct take on Cuomo's resignation: "Was inevitable."
Spitzer's relationship with Cuomo has been described as a "long-simmering ... feud." During Spitzer's time in office, Cuomo was attorney general and led an investigation into the governor. Now the tables have turned. Read a great story on their tumultuous relationship here: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2018/12/19/andrew-cuomo-eliot-spitzer-feud-reignites
There was one thing that wasn't in the governor's announcement; a promise not to run again. I reached out to his office to ask if he's ruling it out and have yet to hear a response. However, one source close to the governor tells me they doubt he will run for office again. The source offered this theory for why he didn't make that clear: "I think that was just his pride."
This obviously is going to set up a major race to succeed Cuomo. Here are the various names of potential Democratic candidates that I have heard over the past few months roughly arranged in order of their formidability and the likelihood they will run:
Kathy Hochul
Tish James
Alessandra Biaggi
Jumaane Williams
Tom DiNapoli
Tom Suozzi
Steve Bellone
Bill de Blasio
There are some other names getting bandied about — this recent poll is a pretty comprehensive list: https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1424755954646716419
My list is a little smaller than that since a lot of the folks in that poll haven't come up in my conversations with anyone.
Tish is kind of a juggernaut — particularly after this investigation. However, her base is very much NYC. There is certainly room for someone in a more upstate, moderate lane. Generally, I think people underestimate Hochul. If she wants to run again — and I am almost certain she will — she'd have the power of incumbency at her back. It vaguely reminds me of Gillibrand getting into the Senate. She was a relatively low profile, fairly conservative upstate Dem. When she was put into Hillary's seat in 2009, there was a lot of head scratching. Fast forward a few years, and she'd been in the seat for over a decade and was running for president as a relative progressive. It's easy to imagine Hochul's sort of sideways ascent similarly being the low key basis for a decade long time in power.
I don't point to Nate Silver a lot but he alluded to this on Twitter today:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1425138708966170628
Speaking of Gillibrand, she's getting mentioned a bit today and is in that poll. I am dubious she's actually eyeing it because I haven't heard her mentioned at all by insiders in the weeks of Cuomo drama — and I have spent a lot of time burning up the phones on this. Perhaps that will change, but that's why she's not on my list.
Both Biaggi and Williams also have a clear lane among progressives. You'll note that before I suggested Hochul was more moderate than Tish and that Gillibrand was a relative progressive when she ran in 2016. That's more in the national context. Tish is progressive compared to Hochul and Gillibrand sort of was compared to her earlier days but neither are part of NYC's progressive movement. National observers misunderstand this a lot. I touched on that a bit here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/06/new-york-mayor-race-progressive-warning/619184/
Biaggi and Jumaane are both part of NY's progressive wing. Jumaane is getting a lot more buzz and has the bigger profile, however, a lot that I have heard makes me think he's really reluctant to go for the top job. Some folks suggest he's really considering it, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's more interested in being an LG. He could help shore up any number of these other potential candidates on their left and within NYC. Biaggi has really been one of Cuomo's worst nightmares who isn't named Tish James. She could be a formidable candidate or LG, however, so far the poll numbers make that look like an uphill climb.
Bellone, Suozzi, and DiNapoli all have people talking about them. I don't really see any of them having a clear lane compared to these other folks and it's also hard to see room for more than one of them succeeding in a primary field.
Lastly, that brings us to de Blasio. He is last on my list more in terms of formidability than likelihood. I think he's really considering it! When I spoke to him in June, he said he wasn't ruling it out and he's since echoed that with others. However, as many people know, de Blasio has earned mixed reviews in NYC and would bring a good deal of baggage. Still, he does have some claim to the progressive lane and he's improved his numbers and **vibes** lately. He could be an interesting player here — particularly if the other progressives sit it out. Here's my recent piece on him where I explore his rejuvenated image and asked if he might be running for governor:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/07/26/bill-de-blasios-wet-hot-valedictory-summer
I almost forgot to mention the Republicans! The short answer is that there hasn't been a Republican governor since Pataki, so the Zeldin/Giuliani race seems like a bit of an unlikely sideshow. Perhaps all of the Cuomo drama - or a brutal Dem primary could change the picture though!
Some interesting context from NY1's Bob Hardt: "For comparison's sake to Andrew Cuomo's two-week warning, Eliot Spitzer gave New Yorkers five days notice before stepping down in 2008."
https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/1425264350206599169
Will have more to share later but I am briefly escaping my desk! Would love to get some more thoughts and questions from you all! I am particularly interested in feedback to that potential candidates list.
President Biden just addressed Cuomo's resignation when he took questions from reporters at a White House event marking the passage of the infrastructure deal. Biden asked the reporter to clarify whether they were asking about Cuomo's "personal behavior or what he's done as governor." The reporter said they wanted an assessment of Cuomo's record.
"Well he's done a hell of a job," Biden said of Cuomo. "He's done a hell of a job … on everything from access to voting, to infrastructure, the whole range of things. That’s why it’s so sad."
It’s funny because I agree with the general sentiment. It makes me angry at Cuomo and sad for similar reasons. And I love Biden. But goddamit this was not “personal behavior” this WAS part of “what he’s done as Governor.”
Attorney General Tish James, whose office launched the investigation that precipitated Cuomo's resignation, just released this statement:
“Today closes a sad chapter for all of New York, but it’s an important step towards justice.
“I thank Governor Cuomo for his contributions to our state. The ascension of our Lieutenant Governor, Kathy Hochul, will help New York enter a new day. We must continue to build on the progress already made and improve the lives of New Yorkers in every corner of the state. I know our state is in good hands with Lieutenant Governor Hochul at the helm, and I look forward to continuing to work with her.”
I’ve wondered with friends for a long time why Cuomo didn’t run for President, and while we had a lot of theories, we often ended up speculating that he had some kind of skeleton in the closet. Do you think this is it? Or could there be something else back there he doesnt want to come out through further probing, making resignation more attractive?
I am really glad you mentioned this! The whole thing has amazing echoes of Mario Cuomo's infamous plane on the tarmac in 1992.
I was working at the Observer covering New York in 2011-2012 when the Cuomo for president buzz was the loudest. I also couldn't help but notice that Cuomo2016.com and Cuomoforpresident.com were both registered in December 2012.
He was touting the state as the "progressive capital" of the countrY at the time. It's branding that feels so hilariously out of step with the rep he would achieve only a few minutes later. Interestingly, it's a phrase I didn't hear him use for years ... until yesterday's resignation remarks!
Cuomo clearly flirted with it. In some ways, I always saw his decision not to as the fact some of the bad stories about his (work-related) behavior and policy critiques from progressives bubbled up in the time between Obama's re-elect and 2016. Hillary was also a powerhouse. I tend to think it's that stuff (which in terms of his record sort of counts as skeletons in the closet!) that made him stick with Albany.
OK so I came in thinking Hochul would not really have a tremendous name brand future in the state, and you are trade-weighting her as more formidable.
My sense is that traditional Cuomo firewalls in the City and Western NY were already eroding, but absolutely will not translate to his former LG for a variety of reasons.
While press at a lot of levels (typically national press) get it twisted on "progressive," I think there is a decent chance that Biaggi or James could animate enough of NY's cities--including and especially Buffalo--to counteract the traditional "moderate appeal" lane.
But I do see Hochul is staffing up and is herself taking it more seriously than I thought she would...
I don't disagree with you! That's part of why I have Biaggi and James behind her on my list. They're both formidable. James in particular is probably the consensus favorite at the moment.
A lot of this will also depend on how many people are in. Is the more moderate lane getting split? I could see a DiNapoli or a Suozzi taking from Hochul. De Blasio could eat into James a bit. Both James and Biaggi are also going to draw on some common support.
Those three are clearly the most formidable but I would put Hochul on top as of now due to incumbency. She is going to have at least a few months to stand alone as the first woman governor. As an upstater, she also clearly has the most unique base here, which is important if we do see a larger field. As you point out, she has been staffing up and in the past week I have seen a lot of moderate DC consultant types start to rally around her. There will be money and an organization ready to go quickly. Also, frankly, I just got intense Gillibrand 2009 deja vu. Tish is most peoples' frontrunner but I think being more under the radar is a strong position for Hochul.
My main takeaway is that it's way early to make solid predictions since we can't see the whole field. However, Hochul, James, and Biaggi seem like the strongest contenders to me at the outset.
I think that Kathryn Garcia could make quite a strong campaign for LG next year.
I’m really curious to see where the folks in Cuomo’s inner circle go now? DeRosa, Benton, and Azzo are the three at top of mind — will they continue working for Cuomo? I’m sure Cuomo will keep a staff of some sort, but I really can’t see them getting hired anywhere else.
(Also can’t wait to see where he goes to live!)
Lots of good points in here!
There is definite Garcia for LG buzz ...
https://twitter.com/stuloeser/status/1425177863054053377?s=20
I was just thinking about this question of his staff! Given how many enemies they had in the legislature, the corporate route makes more sense to me than lobbying. I am sure there are some in the business world who will see experience with Cuomo's iron fisted brand of politics as an asset. He also has a big rolodex of donors and allies.
The house is a really interesting question! He has no other home since the breakup with Sandra Lee!
Is there any reason to think that he has, or that he might, made a deal? Resignation in exchange for some relief on prosecutions or investigations? Or was this just a straight-up reading of the political landscape and getting out while it was still his decision to make?
Thanks! This Q&A is great.
Hi Charles! In politics, it's probably always smart to assume there's some level of backroom dealmaking!
Very early on in this, I got the impression he might be trying to make a play to serve out his term with a promise not to run again. I believe I got into that a bit in this podcast appearance:
https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1423274753071124483
Josefa Velazquez later confirmed this kind of wheeling and dealing was going on.
https://twitter.com/J__Velasquez/status/1424546956492353538
So, in the Assembly there has definitely already been wheeling and dealing to try to stop the impeachment. It didn't work without resignation and it's an open question whether it will stop now that Cuomo's gone (going to post on that shortly).
As far as the other ongoing Cuomo investigations, as I noted earlier I think his resignation will take *some* of the heat off those probes.
https://www.theuprising.info/p/breaking-down-andrew-cuomos-resignation/comments#comment-2582016
However, even if I think law enforcement might factor it in his decision to leave office, theoretically these investigations outside of the legislature should be less open to formal wheeling and dealing from the governor's team at this point. Still, his goal was clearly to calm everything down on all fronts and I suspect this will go a long way towards doing that.
Thanks!
I keep getting stuck on who might run for Governor. I think Kirsten Gillibrand could win (including the conservative upstate vote), but we can’t lose her in the Senate….Schumer is sure to retire soon, and she would then be the senior Senator from New York. Under these circumstances, a woman on the Gubernatorial ticket would be great. I await your list of potential candidates.
Just addressed this in here! Hers is not a name I have heard mentioned too much before this week! https://www.theuprising.info/p/breaking-down-andrew-cuomos-resignation/comments#comment-2583559
On twitter, Matt Y suggested AOC should run for governer in order for the left to "challenge themselves". I don't think that is in the cards for her currently but it got me thinking on a larger scale what are the best options for NY progressives to take for the next election. What are your early thoughts?
I am going to post a longer comment on the likely contenders soon!
Right off the bat I will tell you I think there's almost no chance AOC does that. She has made noise about the Senate seat. As a lot of folks have observed, the possibility of an AOC primary has pushed Schumer meaningfully to the left. Despite this, she's still publicly flirting with a Senate bid which gives her continued leverage. AOC has cooled her national profile a bit and doesn't seem to be eyeing 2024. I suspect she will stay where she is while trying to extract wins from Schumer and plotting a next move.
One thing a lot of folks outside of New York don't understand is that the state — despite being reliably blue in presidential races and very progressive in the city — has a lot of more conservative rural and suburban areas. The Dems only just got a majority in the legislature. For AOC, a statewide race will be pretty hard — I actually think it could be even tougher turf for her than a presidential general. Biding her time and managing the relationship with Schumer is likely a smart political move.
All of that being said, I don't think it's fair or correct to dismiss the recent progressive wave as a bunch of House back benchers. As noted above, AOC has used her position and profile to extract some wins. Cori Bush also just scored a big victory on evictions. More moderate Dems have acknowledged that Bernie and others' pushing led to a larger infrastructure package. And the Biden administration has absorbed some Warren and Sanders staff.
If you look at local offices — including in New York — it also becomes clear that progressives are wielding some influence. In fact, I don't think you would see Cuomo's resignation right now were it not for the sustained pressure we have seen from new progressive lawmakers like Alessandra Biaggi (more on her in a bit), Yuh Line Niou, and Julis Salazar, among others. These were some of the leading voices criticizing his behavior prior to the misconduct allegations. I think that emboldened some folks to come forward. They also are some of the loudest folks calling for an aggressive response to him. In fact, Lindsey Boylan, one of his accusers, is a progressive who has run for office.
So, yeah, I would say this take on what progressives should do (and what they have done) is way too simplistic.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1425149498561597443
Thanks for the detailed response, these discussions areas are where I feel substack substack subscriptions become the most valuable. Twitter is fine for short thoughts but anything to this length gets lost.
I definitely agree with what you are saying and think the governer race shouldn't be the focus for NY progressives. Like AOC has been able to push Schumer to the left via the leverage she does have, I wonder what potential concessions progressives can get from the upcoming gov if they play it smart/correctly. Not always easy to extract the leverage you have without overplaying hand.
This is an interesting question! I will incorporate the best answers I have into my longer comment about the field of would be successors. Trying to get to substantive updates on that and the impeachment but you guys are sending in so many great questions that it's taking a second!
This thread format was a new test for me. One thing I love about Substack is how experimental it all is. I am really pleased with the discussion we have got going down here right now and grateful to you and everyone else for making this a real conversation.
I like how this turned out so there will definitely be more like this in the future!
It was clearly the only sane decision for Cuomo and the state. He should have been impeached over the nursing home scandal. It removes a media distraction from focusing on GOP governor accountability. Why aren't there calls for impeachment of Desantis? Abott's governance is nearly schizophrenic as he tries to appease both the Trumpist base and Independents on the pandemic while openly pushing voter suppression. Where is the outcry of condemnation from Texas voters and the media? Why is the indicted Texas Lt Governor continuing to spew pro-coup propaganda without accountability? Why hasn't FOJ opened a criminal investigation into the Trump administration for the events leading to 1/6? This country is starving for accountability, and the downfall of Cuomo, while deserved, will do little to fix what's broken.
I've actually spent time with some of the family members of the people who died in the nursing homes. One thing that struck me is that they acknowledge the early days of the pandemic were messy and dangerous. There was no perfect solution for nursing homes. What really seemed to bother them is that Cuomo never apologized and, in covering up the numbers, quite literally brushed their loved ones aside. It was a real case where the coverup - and particularly the perceived arrogance around it - was worse than the crime.
Remarkable understanding by the families. That said, underlying every Cuomo scandal is his reflexive arrogance.
Absolutely!
Can he withdraw his resignation? They gave him 14 days before it takes effect.
I *believe* there is nothing formal about this resignation, so very technically he could. That being said, the public fallout would be huge and as you will see in other comments impeachment and other investigations are still looming. I think the more realistic possibility would be him trying to run for something else again. A source now is telling me they don't think he'd do it but we have certainly seen a blue print in NY for scandalized pols trying to mount comebacks!
I just texted with a lawmaker about this and they told me they weren't sure, but "that is the goddamn right question." After so many years of Cuomo's hold on Albany it's very clear a lot of folks aren't sure whether to believe he's really gone yet.
What are the chances that Gov. Cuomo or anyone from his inner circle could be criminally prosecuted? And will Kathy Hochul serve out the rest of the term, or will there be a special election?
Hochul will serve out the rest of his term. Will get into what's next for her shortly.
There definitely are ongoing investigations! Firstly, it's not clear he fully dodged impeachment. Will have a comment up with more detail on that soon. There are also criminal probes! The Albany DA and sheriff are investigating the alleged harassment in his office and the sheriff has said he could face a misdemeanor for groping.
AG James also has an ongoing inquiry into his pandemic book deal and, in recent days, she has specified that the probe is "ongoing."
The only scandal that has definitively cooled down was the probe into the nursing home death numbers. Last month, the DOJ said they would not be launching an investigation into that.
I tend to think resigning will take a lot of pressure off him and his staff. The urgency and heat around these probes will die down a bit and he has already clearly faced some consequences. That's likely why he resigned relatively quickly even though he is, as he said, "a fighter." Still, it remains to be seen whether that move will be enough to totally end the legal jeopardy. Definitely one of the key things to watch going forward!
I believe you have conflated the DOJ investigation into public nursing home deaths in several states (NJ, MI as well as NY) with the more specific SDNY inquiry involving Cuomo fudging of death totals in NYS -- as well as vaccine issues (preferential treatment for family/friends/donors as well as Senor Schwartz possibly pressuring county execs to state their opposition to AC's resignation in exchange for vaccine and distribution sites. Could be wrong -- the reports are somewhat cryptic -- but he seems to still have DOJ peril.
Just noticing this as I am reviewing this for another post. Interesting point. Will double check and look into this to get back to you!