State Sen. Gustavo Rivera (D), a vocal critic of Gov. Cuomo, tweeted this photo of him toasting the resignation on board a flight while the governor made his announcement. (Photo: Twitter)
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his decision to “step aside” on Tuesday one week after a blockbuster report detailed sexual harassment allegations against him from 11 different women. Cuomo’s move left his critics celebrating and huge questions about who will succeed him after over a decade in office.
Since this is such a fast moving story, I am doing something a bit different and opened up this thread. I will be in the comments throughout the day sharing information and analysis about what I am hearing from Albany.
Please join in with any questions or thoughts you have! And if you want more original, independent politics news and analysis, please sign up!
There was one thing that wasn't in the governor's announcement; a promise not to run again. I reached out to his office to ask if he's ruling it out and have yet to hear a response. However, one source close to the governor tells me they doubt he will run for office again. The source offered this theory for why he didn't make that clear: "I think that was just his pride."
This obviously is going to set up a major race to succeed Cuomo. Here are the various names of potential Democratic candidates that I have heard over the past few months roughly arranged in order of their formidability and the likelihood they will run:
My list is a little smaller than that since a lot of the folks in that poll haven't come up in my conversations with anyone.
Tish is kind of a juggernaut — particularly after this investigation. However, her base is very much NYC. There is certainly room for someone in a more upstate, moderate lane. Generally, I think people underestimate Hochul. If she wants to run again — and I am almost certain she will — she'd have the power of incumbency at her back. It vaguely reminds me of Gillibrand getting into the Senate. She was a relatively low profile, fairly conservative upstate Dem. When she was put into Hillary's seat in 2009, there was a lot of head scratching. Fast forward a few years, and she'd been in the seat for over a decade and was running for president as a relative progressive. It's easy to imagine Hochul's sort of sideways ascent similarly being the low key basis for a decade long time in power.
I don't point to Nate Silver a lot but he alluded to this on Twitter today:
Speaking of Gillibrand, she's getting mentioned a bit today and is in that poll. I am dubious she's actually eyeing it because I haven't heard her mentioned at all by insiders in the weeks of Cuomo drama — and I have spent a lot of time burning up the phones on this. Perhaps that will change, but that's why she's not on my list.
Both Biaggi and Williams also have a clear lane among progressives. You'll note that before I suggested Hochul was more moderate than Tish and that Gillibrand was a relative progressive when she ran in 2016. That's more in the national context. Tish is progressive compared to Hochul and Gillibrand sort of was compared to her earlier days but neither are part of NYC's progressive movement. National observers misunderstand this a lot. I touched on that a bit here.
Biaggi and Jumaane are both part of NY's progressive wing. Jumaane is getting a lot more buzz and has the bigger profile, however, a lot that I have heard makes me think he's really reluctant to go for the top job. Some folks suggest he's really considering it, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's more interested in being an LG. He could help shore up any number of these other potential candidates on their left and within NYC. Biaggi has really been one of Cuomo's worst nightmares who isn't named Tish James. She could be a formidable candidate or LG, however, so far the poll numbers make that look like an uphill climb.
Bellone, Suozzi, and DiNapoli all have people talking about them. I don't really see any of them having a clear lane compared to these other folks and it's also hard to see room for more than one of them succeeding in a primary field.
Lastly, that brings us to de Blasio. He is last on my list more in terms of formidability than likelihood. I think he's really considering it! When I spoke to him in June, he said he wasn't ruling it out and he's since echoed that with others. However, as many people know, de Blasio has earned mixed reviews in NYC and would bring a good deal of baggage. Still, he does have some claim to the progressive lane and he's improved his numbers and **vibes** lately. He could be an interesting player here — particularly if the other progressives sit it out. Here's my recent piece on him where I explore his rejuvenated image and asked if he might be running for governor:
Some interesting context from NY1's Bob Hardt: "For comparison's sake to Andrew Cuomo's two-week warning, Eliot Spitzer gave New Yorkers five days notice before stepping down in 2008."
Will have more to share later but I am briefly escaping my desk! Would love to get some more thoughts and questions from you all! I am particularly interested in feedback to that potential candidates list.
President Biden just addressed Cuomo's resignation when he took questions from reporters at a White House event marking the passage of the infrastructure deal. Biden asked the reporter to clarify whether they were asking about Cuomo's "personal behavior or what he's done as governor." The reporter said they wanted an assessment of Cuomo's record.
"Well he's done a hell of a job," Biden said of Cuomo. "He's done a hell of a job … on everything from access to voting, to infrastructure, the whole range of things. That’s why it’s so sad."
Attorney General Tish James, whose office launched the investigation that precipitated Cuomo's resignation, just released this statement:
“Today closes a sad chapter for all of New York, but it’s an important step towards justice.
“I thank Governor Cuomo for his contributions to our state. The ascension of our Lieutenant Governor, Kathy Hochul, will help New York enter a new day. We must continue to build on the progress already made and improve the lives of New Yorkers in every corner of the state. I know our state is in good hands with Lieutenant Governor Hochul at the helm, and I look forward to continuing to work with her.”
I’ve wondered with friends for a long time why Cuomo didn’t run for President, and while we had a lot of theories, we often ended up speculating that he had some kind of skeleton in the closet. Do you think this is it? Or could there be something else back there he doesnt want to come out through further probing, making resignation more attractive?
OK so I came in thinking Hochul would not really have a tremendous name brand future in the state, and you are trade-weighting her as more formidable.
My sense is that traditional Cuomo firewalls in the City and Western NY were already eroding, but absolutely will not translate to his former LG for a variety of reasons.
While press at a lot of levels (typically national press) get it twisted on "progressive," I think there is a decent chance that Biaggi or James could animate enough of NY's cities--including and especially Buffalo--to counteract the traditional "moderate appeal" lane.
But I do see Hochul is staffing up and is herself taking it more seriously than I thought she would...
I think that Kathryn Garcia could make quite a strong campaign for LG next year.
I’m really curious to see where the folks in Cuomo’s inner circle go now? DeRosa, Benton, and Azzo are the three at top of mind — will they continue working for Cuomo? I’m sure Cuomo will keep a staff of some sort, but I really can’t see them getting hired anywhere else.
Is there any reason to think that he has, or that he might, made a deal? Resignation in exchange for some relief on prosecutions or investigations? Or was this just a straight-up reading of the political landscape and getting out while it was still his decision to make?
I keep getting stuck on who might run for Governor. I think Kirsten Gillibrand could win (including the conservative upstate vote), but we can’t lose her in the Senate….Schumer is sure to retire soon, and she would then be the senior Senator from New York. Under these circumstances, a woman on the Gubernatorial ticket would be great. I await your list of potential candidates.
On twitter, Matt Y suggested AOC should run for governer in order for the left to "challenge themselves". I don't think that is in the cards for her currently but it got me thinking on a larger scale what are the best options for NY progressives to take for the next election. What are your early thoughts?
It was clearly the only sane decision for Cuomo and the state. He should have been impeached over the nursing home scandal. It removes a media distraction from focusing on GOP governor accountability. Why aren't there calls for impeachment of Desantis? Abott's governance is nearly schizophrenic as he tries to appease both the Trumpist base and Independents on the pandemic while openly pushing voter suppression. Where is the outcry of condemnation from Texas voters and the media? Why is the indicted Texas Lt Governor continuing to spew pro-coup propaganda without accountability? Why hasn't FOJ opened a criminal investigation into the Trump administration for the events leading to 1/6? This country is starving for accountability, and the downfall of Cuomo, while deserved, will do little to fix what's broken.
What are the chances that Gov. Cuomo or anyone from his inner circle could be criminally prosecuted? And will Kathy Hochul serve out the rest of the term, or will there be a special election?
Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer emailed me a succinct take on Cuomo's resignation: "Was inevitable."
Spitzer's relationship with Cuomo has been described as a "long-simmering ... feud." During Spitzer's time in office, Cuomo was attorney general and led an investigation into the governor. Now the tables have turned. Read a great story on their tumultuous relationship here: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2018/12/19/andrew-cuomo-eliot-spitzer-feud-reignites
There was one thing that wasn't in the governor's announcement; a promise not to run again. I reached out to his office to ask if he's ruling it out and have yet to hear a response. However, one source close to the governor tells me they doubt he will run for office again. The source offered this theory for why he didn't make that clear: "I think that was just his pride."
This obviously is going to set up a major race to succeed Cuomo. Here are the various names of potential Democratic candidates that I have heard over the past few months roughly arranged in order of their formidability and the likelihood they will run:
Kathy Hochul
Tish James
Alessandra Biaggi
Jumaane Williams
Tom DiNapoli
Tom Suozzi
Steve Bellone
Bill de Blasio
There are some other names getting bandied about — this recent poll is a pretty comprehensive list: https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1424755954646716419
My list is a little smaller than that since a lot of the folks in that poll haven't come up in my conversations with anyone.
Tish is kind of a juggernaut — particularly after this investigation. However, her base is very much NYC. There is certainly room for someone in a more upstate, moderate lane. Generally, I think people underestimate Hochul. If she wants to run again — and I am almost certain she will — she'd have the power of incumbency at her back. It vaguely reminds me of Gillibrand getting into the Senate. She was a relatively low profile, fairly conservative upstate Dem. When she was put into Hillary's seat in 2009, there was a lot of head scratching. Fast forward a few years, and she'd been in the seat for over a decade and was running for president as a relative progressive. It's easy to imagine Hochul's sort of sideways ascent similarly being the low key basis for a decade long time in power.
I don't point to Nate Silver a lot but he alluded to this on Twitter today:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1425138708966170628
Speaking of Gillibrand, she's getting mentioned a bit today and is in that poll. I am dubious she's actually eyeing it because I haven't heard her mentioned at all by insiders in the weeks of Cuomo drama — and I have spent a lot of time burning up the phones on this. Perhaps that will change, but that's why she's not on my list.
Both Biaggi and Williams also have a clear lane among progressives. You'll note that before I suggested Hochul was more moderate than Tish and that Gillibrand was a relative progressive when she ran in 2016. That's more in the national context. Tish is progressive compared to Hochul and Gillibrand sort of was compared to her earlier days but neither are part of NYC's progressive movement. National observers misunderstand this a lot. I touched on that a bit here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/06/new-york-mayor-race-progressive-warning/619184/
Biaggi and Jumaane are both part of NY's progressive wing. Jumaane is getting a lot more buzz and has the bigger profile, however, a lot that I have heard makes me think he's really reluctant to go for the top job. Some folks suggest he's really considering it, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's more interested in being an LG. He could help shore up any number of these other potential candidates on their left and within NYC. Biaggi has really been one of Cuomo's worst nightmares who isn't named Tish James. She could be a formidable candidate or LG, however, so far the poll numbers make that look like an uphill climb.
Bellone, Suozzi, and DiNapoli all have people talking about them. I don't really see any of them having a clear lane compared to these other folks and it's also hard to see room for more than one of them succeeding in a primary field.
Lastly, that brings us to de Blasio. He is last on my list more in terms of formidability than likelihood. I think he's really considering it! When I spoke to him in June, he said he wasn't ruling it out and he's since echoed that with others. However, as many people know, de Blasio has earned mixed reviews in NYC and would bring a good deal of baggage. Still, he does have some claim to the progressive lane and he's improved his numbers and **vibes** lately. He could be an interesting player here — particularly if the other progressives sit it out. Here's my recent piece on him where I explore his rejuvenated image and asked if he might be running for governor:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/07/26/bill-de-blasios-wet-hot-valedictory-summer
Some interesting context from NY1's Bob Hardt: "For comparison's sake to Andrew Cuomo's two-week warning, Eliot Spitzer gave New Yorkers five days notice before stepping down in 2008."
https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/1425264350206599169
Will have more to share later but I am briefly escaping my desk! Would love to get some more thoughts and questions from you all! I am particularly interested in feedback to that potential candidates list.
President Biden just addressed Cuomo's resignation when he took questions from reporters at a White House event marking the passage of the infrastructure deal. Biden asked the reporter to clarify whether they were asking about Cuomo's "personal behavior or what he's done as governor." The reporter said they wanted an assessment of Cuomo's record.
"Well he's done a hell of a job," Biden said of Cuomo. "He's done a hell of a job … on everything from access to voting, to infrastructure, the whole range of things. That’s why it’s so sad."
Attorney General Tish James, whose office launched the investigation that precipitated Cuomo's resignation, just released this statement:
“Today closes a sad chapter for all of New York, but it’s an important step towards justice.
“I thank Governor Cuomo for his contributions to our state. The ascension of our Lieutenant Governor, Kathy Hochul, will help New York enter a new day. We must continue to build on the progress already made and improve the lives of New Yorkers in every corner of the state. I know our state is in good hands with Lieutenant Governor Hochul at the helm, and I look forward to continuing to work with her.”
I’ve wondered with friends for a long time why Cuomo didn’t run for President, and while we had a lot of theories, we often ended up speculating that he had some kind of skeleton in the closet. Do you think this is it? Or could there be something else back there he doesnt want to come out through further probing, making resignation more attractive?
OK so I came in thinking Hochul would not really have a tremendous name brand future in the state, and you are trade-weighting her as more formidable.
My sense is that traditional Cuomo firewalls in the City and Western NY were already eroding, but absolutely will not translate to his former LG for a variety of reasons.
While press at a lot of levels (typically national press) get it twisted on "progressive," I think there is a decent chance that Biaggi or James could animate enough of NY's cities--including and especially Buffalo--to counteract the traditional "moderate appeal" lane.
But I do see Hochul is staffing up and is herself taking it more seriously than I thought she would...
I think that Kathryn Garcia could make quite a strong campaign for LG next year.
I’m really curious to see where the folks in Cuomo’s inner circle go now? DeRosa, Benton, and Azzo are the three at top of mind — will they continue working for Cuomo? I’m sure Cuomo will keep a staff of some sort, but I really can’t see them getting hired anywhere else.
(Also can’t wait to see where he goes to live!)
Is there any reason to think that he has, or that he might, made a deal? Resignation in exchange for some relief on prosecutions or investigations? Or was this just a straight-up reading of the political landscape and getting out while it was still his decision to make?
Thanks! This Q&A is great.
I keep getting stuck on who might run for Governor. I think Kirsten Gillibrand could win (including the conservative upstate vote), but we can’t lose her in the Senate….Schumer is sure to retire soon, and she would then be the senior Senator from New York. Under these circumstances, a woman on the Gubernatorial ticket would be great. I await your list of potential candidates.
On twitter, Matt Y suggested AOC should run for governer in order for the left to "challenge themselves". I don't think that is in the cards for her currently but it got me thinking on a larger scale what are the best options for NY progressives to take for the next election. What are your early thoughts?
It was clearly the only sane decision for Cuomo and the state. He should have been impeached over the nursing home scandal. It removes a media distraction from focusing on GOP governor accountability. Why aren't there calls for impeachment of Desantis? Abott's governance is nearly schizophrenic as he tries to appease both the Trumpist base and Independents on the pandemic while openly pushing voter suppression. Where is the outcry of condemnation from Texas voters and the media? Why is the indicted Texas Lt Governor continuing to spew pro-coup propaganda without accountability? Why hasn't FOJ opened a criminal investigation into the Trump administration for the events leading to 1/6? This country is starving for accountability, and the downfall of Cuomo, while deserved, will do little to fix what's broken.
Can he withdraw his resignation? They gave him 14 days before it takes effect.
What are the chances that Gov. Cuomo or anyone from his inner circle could be criminally prosecuted? And will Kathy Hochul serve out the rest of the term, or will there be a special election?